Deutsche Bank says gold's current rally, running since August 2024, is one of only five such episodes since 1975. Analysts at the bank see the recent pullback as largely complete and reiterates its $4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.

04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

Jul 2, 2026 4:17 PM EDT Gold investors were bracing for more sluggishness. Following months of pressure, investors expected the next big call on the shiny yellow metal to be much more defensive, especially as rate-cut hopes faded and the dollar regained some bite. For context, gold was recently trading near the low $4,000s, with spot prices at around $4,064 per ounce at the time of writing. Gold price rebounded amid weak jobs data, lower oil prices, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ’s latest comments. Speaking in Portugal, according to Investopedia , Warsh said inflation risks were diminishing somewhat. While it was far from a clear signal of a rate cut, the comments gave gold a short-term lift and injected life back into the debasement trade. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs isn’t treating the recent pullback as the end of the gold trade. The bank’s latest message is much more measured but adds to the bull case for higher gold prices. Goldman was focusing on a deeper source of demand that does not move like a short-term ETF trade. Though gold has lost momentum, Goldman says the bigger force behind the rally remains intact. Wall Street price targets for gold prices Goldman Sachs : $4,900/oz by end-2026. Goldman’s leans on sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification . JPMorgan : $6,000/oz by Q4 2026. JPMorgan sees gold pushing higher as central bank demand and macro uncertainty remain supportive. UBS : $5,200/oz over the next 12 months. UBS says gold can rebound as markets rethink Fed policy, dollar pressure, and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley : $5,200/oz in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley says gold needs stronger ETF inflows to make that target realistic. Bank of America : $4,800/oz by Q4 2026. BofA trimmed its near-term outlook as investor demand weakened and Fed headwinds grew. Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, Business Insider, Investing, JPMorgan Global Research, and Morgan Stanley/Bank of America notes cited by Kitco. What Goldman Sachs said about gold’s next move Goldman Sachs just drew a clear line between gold’s pullback and its long-term thesis. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argued that gold’s sharp four-month decline doesn’t mean the bull case is wrapped up and that she still sees room for the metal to climb toward its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, according to Kitco News . Gold had been one of Wall Street ’s strongest momentum stories, stoked by inflation fears, central-bank buying, and geopolitical risk. The setup then took a major blow amid higher-rate expectations; a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand weighed on prices. Goldman’s point is that the primary structural buyer hasn’t disappeared. Dart acknowledged that a hawkish Fed has hurt the debasement trade and pressured ETF demand. But Goldman is still leaning on central-bank buying, especially emerging-market reserve diversification, anchoring its forecast. She wrote that “EM central bank diversification” remains the key driver, with the post-2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves influencing how some central banks think about gold. The World Gold Council data supports that argument. The 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase their holdings. It’s important to note that in May, according to Yahoo Finance , Goldman revised their central-bank gold-demand model after finding official trade data was missing some sovereign buying. Consequently, its 12-month purchase forecast jumped to nearly 50 tonnes per month from 29 tonnes per month, and the bank now sees roughly 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Goldman said UK trade data understated London vault outflows since August 2025, while geopolitical uncertainty and diversification demand kept underlying interest strong. The bank had slashed its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target by $500 to $4,900 in June, citing the reality of a hawkish Fed. What has to happen for gold to reach $4,900 For gold to reach Goldman’s $4,900/oz target, the market needs a lot more than sovereign buying. It needs pressure from rates, the dollar, and investor flows to ease simultaneously. The first gate is U.S. labor data. Reuters reported June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 economists expected, while May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That sort of slowdown could help gold if it reduces market confidence that the Fed has to stay hawkish. The second aspect to consider is policy language. According to MoneyControl , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped gold rebound by saying inflation risks had eased, but he also reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target and warned against assuming looser policy. That means gold needs cooler inflation and softer jobs data to become a trend rather than a one-day reaction. The third point to consider is the return of private money. The World Gold Council said global gold ETF flows slowed to a “trickle” in May, with ETF assets down 2% month over month to $604 billion. Without stronger ETF demand, gold may recover, but the move toward $4,900 becomes harder to sustain. source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-delivers-honest-verdict-on-golds-selloff

Released on July 1, the International Energy Agency’s latest Global EV Outlook 2026 forecasts that global electric vehicle sales will hit 23 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 30% of all new vehicle sales worldwide, compared with merely around 5% five to six years ago. EV sales in Europe are expected to rise by 20%; those in Asia-Pacific economies excluding China will surge over 50%; and Latin America’s EV deliveries are set to grow by 45%.

China smashed records in 2025 with 200.53 million tonnes of official bauxite imports, backed by ~213 million tonnes in actual port discharges, fueling relentless demand from EVs, renewables, and packaging that domestic mines can't fully satisfy which keeping China 70-75% hooked on foreign suppliers.

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