[SMM Tin Midday Review: Resonance Between Macro Pressures and Supply Recovery Kept SHFE Tin Under Pressure and Continued to Weaken]

[SMM Tin Market Brief: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder are suppressed by high prices, compounded by the traditional consumption sector entering the off-season]​​​​Tin ore imports restricted​​: Due to the suspension of transportation routes in southern Myanmar by Thailand (starting from June 4) and internal transportation disruptions in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports in June are expected to decrease by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). Additionally, the production resumption in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing slowly, with the restoration of the power system requiring at least three months, making it difficult to change the tight supply situation of ore in the short term.​​​​Weak traditional demand​​: Industry orders in downstream sectors such as electronic solder and tinplate are suppressed by high prices, with some companies' operating rates falling below 60%.......

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Tin Session , Chen Peng, Senior Tin Analyst at SMM, discussed the theme of changes in the global tin industry chain landscape and future development trends. 1. Global Tin Resource Distribution and Supply Landscape Intensified Resource Scarcity: Static Mining Lifespan Less Than 15 Years China accounts for 22% of global tin ore reserves but contributes 45% of global production, with resource development intensity exceeding critical thresholds. • Global tin resources are highly concentrated, with China, Indonesia, and Myanmar collectively accounting for over 50%. China, as the largest producer (45% of production), and Indonesia form a dual-core driving force, yet with significant differences in resource endowments. Tin Ore Segment: Global tin ore production is also primarily concentrated in countries with high reserves • Global tin ore production is mainly concentrated in countries such as China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DRC. • Except during the COVID-19 pandemic period, global tin ore production has consistently remained at the level of 300,000 mt in metal content annually. Tin Ore Segment: Tin ore imports continued to decline in 2025, with cumulative YoY imports for January-April 2025 at -47.98%. The contraction of tin ore supply from Myanmar has become a long-term trend. • The market generally expects that Wa State may resume production by mid-2025, but the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 mt in metal content, and it will require a 2-3 month transmission period. The progress of production resumption will be constrained by Sino-Myanmar mining trade negotiations and the centralization process in Wa State. Tin Ore Segment: Myanmar's Dominance Weakens, Diversified Landscape Accelerates • Before 2023: Myanmar once accounted for 72%-85% of China's tin ore imports. However, after the implementation of the mining ban policy in Wa State in August 2023, its supply volume plummeted. By 2024, Myanmar's import share dropped to 48.1%, and further declined to 24%-30% in 2025. The core mining area, Mansang (accounting for 80% of Myanmar's supply), remains in a state of suspension. • Emergence of Alternative Sources: Imports from Africa (DRC, Nigeria), South America (Peru, Bolivia), and Australia have increased significantly. For example, in 2025, the import share from the DRC rose to 28%, Nigeria's import share reached 11%, and Australia's imports surged by 101% YoY. The 20-day moving average of recent tin ore import profit margins has remained stable. ►Risk Point Reminder: African Supply Chain Stability to Be Verified: Operational risks at Alphamin mine in the DRC (short-term suspension in April 2025). Global Refined Tin Landscape Features "Asia-Dominated, South America-Supported, Africa-Supplemented" • In the global tin industry chain, most smelting and refining activities are concentrated near tin ore production sites. Countries such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Thailand, the DRC, Bolivia, and Brazil all have smelters of a certain scale, with China and Indonesia accounting for a relatively high proportion. The production resumption process in the Wa region of Myanmar has commenced, but due to the impact of earthquakes and rising policy implementation costs, the actual increase may fall short of expectations. The core contradiction in the tin ore event chain in the DRC lies in the game between geopolitical conflicts and resource dependence. Risk Points: Stability of the African supply chain to be verified: As the largest importer, China's refined tin industry chain is significantly affected by disruptions in the DRC, while the growth in demand for AI, new energy, etc., further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance. 2. Global Tin Consumption Structure and Demand Evolution Terminal Segment: Tin Consumption Structure • In the global tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 48%, tin chemicals 16%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tin alloys 7%. • In China's tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 67%, tin chemicals 12%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tinplate 6%. Terminal Segment: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) shows a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries. AI demand has driven the capacity utilisation rate of semiconductor companies to record highs. • In the past two years, the SOX has shown a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries, primarily driven by liquidity expectations and valuation pressures. • In 2024, the capacity utilisation rate of the US computer and semiconductor industry remained stable at 76.53%-78.44%, close to the average over the past 10 years (76.72%). In specific segments, the semiconductor capacity utilisation rate reached 95% in Q1 2025, a record high, reflecting the supply-demand tension driven by AI demand. Terminal Segment: The cumulative YoY growth rate of PVC resin production has dropped back slightly, while key enterprises producing tinplate have operated smoothly throughout the year. • The construction of commercial housing is not an isolated process; it is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for building materials. Despite two consecutive years of decline in the sales area of commercial housing, completion demand and policy support (such as ensuring timely delivery of housing projects and infrastructure investment) have driven PVC consumption growth, with a "weak positive correlation" maintained between the two in the past two years. • In the past two years, the tinplate industry has exhibited a differentiated pattern of "shortage in the high-end segment and surplus in the low-end segment". Leading enterprises have consolidated their advantages through technological upgrades and export markets, while small and medium-sized enterprises face integration pressures. However, overall production has remained at a relatively stable level and is expected to maintain its current magnitude in the future. 3. Inventory Cycle and Supply Chain Resilience Building Inventory Link: China's tin ingot social inventory exhibits significant cyclical characteristics •From February to March 2025, inventory showed an alternating pattern of "increase-decrease", mainly due to the release of downstream restocking demand coupled with fluctuations in SHFE tin prices. •Inventory changes in tin ingots are highly correlated with prices, seasonal demand (e.g., the "September-October peak season"), and policy adjustments (e.g., production restrictions in smelting), exhibiting a cyclical pattern of "inventory buildup in H1 and destocking in H2". It also elaborated on the inventory levels within China's tin industry chain. 4. Changes in the Global Tin Industry Chain Landscape and Future Development Trends In 2024, the global tin market was characterized by "regional shortages and a slight global deficit" The tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation in 2024, and is expected to shift towards a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven regional supply recovery, emerging demand growth) will dominate price fluctuations. The market should closely monitor the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected shocks from macro policies and geopolitical risks. ►SMM Outlook •In 2024, the global tin ingot market was characterized by concurrent supply contraction and weak demand recovery. Affected by factors such as the suspension of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa region and delayed approval of Indonesia's export quotas, global tin ore production declined YoY. However, the release of unreported inventory and the supplementation of recycled tin alleviated supply pressures, leading to a slight increase in annual refined tin production to approximately 374,000 mt. On the demand side, weak recovery in the semiconductor industry and a slowdown in PV growth dragged down global consumption to around 373,000 mt, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 11,000 mt. •In 2025, expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar (with potential output increases in H2) and full production at new projects in the DRC and China will drive supply growth. On the demand side, the upward trend in the semiconductor cycle, coupled with the application of AI technology and growth in NEVs, may increase global consumption to 375,000 mt. However, growth in traditional sectors (e.g., tinplate, home appliance exports) will slow down to 2.1%-3.5% due to trade frictions. The annual supply-demand gap may narrow to 5,100 mt, but geopolitical risks (Myanmar's political situation, Indonesia's exports) may exacerbate volatility. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

At the beginning of April, SHFE tin prices fell sharply under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts. However, as tariffs were suspended, tin prices rebounded, recovering previous losses and returning to levels before the supply disruptions of tin ore in the DRC. Nevertheless, the market reacted strongly to rumors last week about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region, causing tin prices to break through support levels and continue to weaken at the beginning of this week, with the most-traded contract falling below the 250,000 mt threshold. Currently, these market rumors remain unverified. According to SMM, few enterprises are paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and most major mining traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, the current inspections at the China-Myanmar border are stringent, and the entry procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complex. Therefore, the current pace of production resumptions in the Wa region may fall short of market expectations. So, does the current tin price still have the momentum to continue declining? Tight Actual Supply of Tin Ore, with Increasing Expectations for Future Increases In recent years, speculation on SHFE tin has mainly revolved around supply, as tin is a relatively scarce metal with limited content in the Earth's crust and a high degree of supply concentration, primarily distributed in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Australia, and other regions. After Myanmar suspended tin ore mining on August 1, 2023, global tin resources have been in a relatively tight supply situation. Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to supply-side information, with any slight changes triggering significant market fluctuations. In the early stages of Myanmar's mining ban, China's tin ore imports remained at a relatively high level due to the availability of ore inventory for export. However, as inventory was depleted, China's tin ore imports plummeted from Q2 last year, and the issue of tight domestic tin ore supply has become increasingly prominent. During this period, Chinese enterprises actively sought alternative resources from other countries. However, due to limited global new tin ore discoveries in recent years, the tight resource situation has not been alleviated. Among them, the Bisie mine, owned by Alphamin in the DRC, is the largest mine in Africa and the third largest globally. The mine has two projects: the Mpama North project operates steadily, while the Mpama South project commenced production on May 17 last year, making it the largest among the newly commissioned projects last year. Tin ore from the DRC has also become an important source of tin ore imports for China, currently accounting for about 30%. Production at the Alphamin mine was suspended for over a month in March due to local armed conflicts but gradually resumed in early April. The production interruption at the Alphamin mine, which only recovered about 1,290 mt of tin metal, may result in a supply gap of approximately 2,000-3,000 mt. Currently, Alphamin has revised its tin production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year downward from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Since the beginning of this year, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has gradually been put on the agenda. On February 26, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued the document "Procedures for Applying for Mining, Beneficiation Plant, and Prospecting Licenses," which explicitly stipulated the process for applying for licenses in mining areas. On the morning of April 23, 2025, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration held a special symposium on the resumption of production at the Mansang mine. The meeting announced relevant documents and clarified the work procedures. However, after the symposium, the authorities had not yet issued a clear signal for a full resumption of production. On May 27, market news emerged that the first batch of tin ore from Myanmar's Wa State had reportedly obtained export licenses, but the authenticity of the rumors was questionable. Even if production resumption were confirmed, the first batch of tin ore would not enter the market until at least the end of June. Currently, tin ore supply is tight, and domestic tin concentrate treatment charges (TCs) remain at historically low levels. As of May 30, the tin concentrate TC for 40% grade ore in Yunnan was 11,000 yuan/mt, and for 60% grade ore in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Hunan was also 11,000 yuan/mt, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. The shortage of raw material supply has affected the production of smelters. According to SMM data based on market-adjusted processing figures, in May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% MoM and 11.24% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrate and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate of domestic smelters. As of May 30, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 54.58%. Regionally, in Yunnan, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressures are intertwined. Raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters are generally below 30 days, with some enterprises facing inventory backlogs due to high-priced stockpiling in the early period. However, weak downstream demand has made it difficult to sell goods, resulting in sluggish spot premium transactions. Some smelters in core production areas such as Gejiu have entered seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures. In Jiangxi, since the beginning of the year, the local scrap tin recycling volume has consistently been below 70% of the annual average, mainly due to the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese electronics, leading to a contraction in solder export orders and a reduction in scrap sources. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap, with some capacity potentially exiting the market permanently. In Inner Mongolia, production slightly rebounded in May due to production issues at captive mines, but it has not yet returned to previous levels. Production areas such as Anhui have continued to experience operating rates below expectations due to shortages of scrap and tin concentrates. Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production is expected to decrease by 4.58% MoM in June, with some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning to halt production for maintenance. Overall, tin ore supply in June is unlikely to see significant recovery. However, the period of the tightest global tin supply is about to pass, and the market will enter a verification phase for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the resumption progress of tin ore production in Myanmar. There is a lack of significant incremental demand in the downstream sector. Global semiconductor sales exhibit cyclical changes. The current semiconductor cycle bottomed out in February 2023, with YoY growth in sales turning positive in November 2023. Since then, the growth rate has been climbing, but it gradually slowed down after October 2024. Currently, the absolute amount of global semiconductor sales remains at a high level. Sales began to pull back slightly from December 2024 and saw a slight MoM rebound in March 2025. This global semiconductor cycle is driven by AI computing power construction, primarily in advanced manufacturing processes. Therefore, the core beneficiaries are concentrated overseas, while domestic capacity is mainly in mature manufacturing processes, offering limited impetus. The downstream semiconductor industries in China are more concentrated in areas such as consumer electronics and automotive. From January to April 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 94.708 million units, up 3.5% YoY. Overall, China's policy subsidies have further boosted market consumption, and the Chinese smartphone industry has shown steady growth from January to April 2025. The recent 618 shopping festival has already kicked off and is expected to support stable end-use consumption electronics. However, the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season for demand in July and August. Enterprises may slow down their stockpiling pace, and it is anticipated that downstream demand for raw materials such as tin will also drop back slightly. Whether there will be an outperformance in demand this year remains to be seen, depending on whether AI blockbuster products emerge in the consumer electronics sector. In recent years, the new demand for tin solder has mainly been reflected in PV solder, currently accounting for over 10%. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy from January to April 2025 was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY. The significant growth in new PV installed capacity is primarily driven by the installation rush driven by policy timelines. In January 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed PV Power Generation," clarifying that April 30, 2025, is the demarcation point for the implementation of new and old policies. Existing projects that completed their filings before this date will still enjoy the original subsidy and grid connection policies, while new projects will fully implement market-based rules thereafter. On February 9, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy." Starting from May 31, 2025, incremental distributed PV projects will fully enter the market. All new projects will, in principle, have their entire electricity output traded in the power market, with electricity prices formed through market bidding, and subsidies will completely exit the historical stage. Meanwhile, a "price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy," namely, a "refund for excess, supplement for shortfall" differential settlement mechanism, has been established to stabilize revenue expectations. To capitalize on the two major policy periods of "430" and "531," downstream enterprises initiated an installation rush, driving a significant YoY increase in domestic newly installed PV capacity in April. However, projects connected to the grid after May 31, 2025, are required to fully comply with the new regulations. It is expected that the growth rate of PV installation capacity will subsequently slow down, which will also drag down the demand for tin. Meanwhile, market consumption in traditional sectors such as tinplate and PVC heat stabilizers remains stable. Downstream enterprises are highly sensitive to price changes. Recently, with the decline in tin prices, market sentiment for stockpiling has improved, and downstream procurement demand has rebounded. However, finished product inventories in some markets remain at relatively high levels, ultimately limiting the boost to raw material procurement by downstream enterprises driven by growth in end-user market demand. Overall, the increase in tin concentrates in June is expected to be relatively limited, so the supply will remain slightly tight in the short term. However, the supply of raw materials is expected to gradually improve, and the market will subsequently enter a verification period for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the production resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar. On the demand side, the market is about to enter the off-season, with weak expectations for demand growth, making it difficult to effectively boost tin prices. Therefore, in the short term, under the expectation of increased supply, there may be downward pressure on the central tendency of the market, but constrained by the current situation where the shortage of tin ore has not significantly eased, market trends may fluctuate. However, from a long-term perspective, the AI industry cycle has not yet ended. If there is a surge in demand from AI end-users, it is expected to significantly drive up tin demand. At that time, the growth rate of supply may lag behind the resilience of demand, and the downside room for tin prices in the medium and long term will be limited. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty in current trade policies, and caution should be exercised against significant disruptions to tin prices caused by macro factors. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

On April 2, since the announcement of the US reciprocal tariffs, major global capital markets have been sold off, and non-ferrous metals have experienced significant declines. SHFE tin has accumulated a drop of 12%, ranking among the top in the non-ferrous metal category. Tin ore has supply constraints, and the fundamentals provide some support, so why has the decline been significantly greater than other varieties? The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, and the volatility is relatively large. After the Chinese New Year, the center of tin prices has been continuously rising, mainly due to unexpected events affecting overseas tin ore supply. In early February, the intensification of armed conflicts in the DRC raised concerns about African tin ore supply, driving tin prices up. However, at that time, the Bisie mine had not yet halted operations, and the brief rise in tin prices was followed by a noticeable pullback. On February 26, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued a document on the process for handling mining, beneficiation plant, and exploration licenses. The market expected the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines, and under the influence of this news, tin prices fell sharply to 255,000 yuan/mt. On March 13, Alphamin Resources, the operator of the Bisie mine in the DRC, announced a temporary halt to operations in the eastern DRC due to the advance of rebel armed groups towards the company's mining area. The Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global tin ore supply, ceased operations, pushing tin prices up to 290,000 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as the resumption of Myanmar's mines became clearer, tin prices fluctuated and pulled back to 275,000 yuan/mt. On March 28, 2025, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar. Since the main tin ore production area was far from the epicenter, tin prices did not see a significant increase on the day of the earthquake. However, the Wa State's planned resumption symposium for the Manxiang mining area, originally scheduled for April 1, was postponed, indicating a possible delay in the resumption of tin ore production, which heightened market concerns about tin ore supply and pushed tin prices up to the 300,000 yuan/mt mark. Reviewing the entire upward process of tin prices, the logic of tight tin ore supply gradually evolved, and tin ore smelting TC showed a continuous downward trend. Domestic smelters' operating rates were indeed slightly affected, but overall production remained relatively stable. The short-term sharp rise in tin prices was more driven by capital and sentiment, and the actual fundamentals could hardly support tin prices reaching around 300,000 yuan/mt. Therefore, this round of sharp decline in tin prices is a correction to the previous excessive exuberance that led to the significant rise. Currently, tin prices have fallen back to around 250,000 yuan/mt, essentially returning to the starting point of the post-Chinese New Year rise. In comparison, other non-ferrous metals have already fallen below pre-Chinese New Year levels, even breaking the lows of early January. In this sense, tin prices are more resilient compared to other metals. Tariffs continue to escalate, and tin demand may be hit. After decades of development, the US has gradually formed a pattern dominated by high-tech and financial industries, with manufacturing gradually hollowing out. Since the pandemic, US economic growth has become more reliant on loose fiscal and monetary policies, continuously pushing up debt and inflation. By the end of 2024, the total federal government debt in the US had exceeded $36 trillion, reaching a historical high. The new US president's core demand is to reduce debt, prioritize US production, and promote the return of manufacturing. Fiscal measures include "increasing income and reducing expenditure," imposing comprehensive tariffs externally, reducing military spending to increase income, and streamlining the government internally to reduce expenditure. Due to the urgency of controlling debt, this round of tariffs is significantly different from the 2018 situation, where the tariff policy was partial. This time, the US has imposed tariffs across the board, with a much greater impact on capital markets than in 2018, exerting downward pressure on the global economy, and the market has begun to reprice the risk of a global economic recession. In tin end-use consumption, tin solder accounts for the highest proportion, at 48% in 2022, followed by tin chemicals, tinplate, lead-acid batteries, and tin-copper alloys, at 17%, 12%, 8%, and 7%, respectively. Regionally, global tin consumption is mainly concentrated in Asia, with 70% of global tin consumption in 2022 coming from Asia, of which China accounted for 46%, and the Americas and Europe accounted for 15% and 14%, respectively. Tin solder, as an important basic material for electronic materials, has a wide range of downstream applications, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, automotive electronics, PV, and smart home appliances, characterized by small products and a large market. Since 2018, China's trade structure has undergone significant changes, with the proportion of trade with the US continuously declining. In 2019, China's trade surplus with the US accounted for 85.2% of the total surplus, but it has now dropped to 38.5%. China's trade surplus with "Belt and Road" countries exceeds that with the US, reaching 39.0%. China's processing trade surplus with the US is mainly concentrated in mobile phones and computers, accounting for 35.3% and 34.9% of China's processing trade surplus with the US, respectively. The general trade surplus with emerging countries is mainly composed of buses, mobile phones, and low-value simple customs clearance goods, some of which flow into the US through re-export trade. Therefore, in this round of US "reciprocal tariffs," hefty tariffs have been imposed on China and Southeast Asian countries. Data shows that in 2024, China's total exports to the US reached 3,733.72 billion yuan, up 4.9% YoY, while imports from the US totaled 1,164.061 billion yuan. China's main export products to the US are concentrated in mechanical and electronic categories, totaling 1,547.584 billion yuan, accounting for 41.45% of total exports. Among them, smartphone exports were 250.15 billion yuan, accounting for 7%, laptop exports were 179.87 billion yuan, accounting for 4.8%, and exports of communication and audio-visual equipment and parts were 209.156 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%. In addition, textile, footwear, and apparel products and furniture/toys/sports miscellaneous products were exported at 468.626 billion yuan and 459.461 billion yuan, accounting for 12.55% and 12.31% of total exports, respectively, forming the three pillars of China's exports to the US. China's imports from the US are mainly high-tech and resource products. Mechanical and electronic product imports were 269.73 billion yuan, accounting for 23.17% of total imports, of which integrated circuits and semiconductor manufacturing equipment and parts imports were 83.877 billion yuan and 31.946 billion yuan, respectively. Agricultural product imports were 190.1 billion yuan, accounting for 16.33%, and energy product imports were 164.3 billion yuan, accounting for 14%. China and the US have significant trade volumes in consumer electronics and semiconductors. The US relies on China for mature processes and consumer electronics tolling business, while China has a high demand for high-end chips and semiconductor equipment. On April 2, the US announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners, with a 34% tariff on China, plus the previous 20%, totaling 54%. On April 4, China announced tariff countermeasures, imposing an additional 34% tariff on all imports originating from the US on top of the current applicable tariff rates. The trade conflict between the two sides has further intensified, and the US has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff. If the tariffs are strictly implemented, it will have a significant impact on the consumption of consumer electronics and semiconductors in both countries, further impacting tin demand. In recent years, China's domestic mobile phone brands have risen, and the trade surplus in mobile phone complete machines has continued to expand, especially in exports to emerging countries. In terms of trade mode, there has been a gradual shift from processing trade to general trade, which may indicate that China is transitioning from mainly supplying overseas brand tolling business mobile phones to "Belt and Road" countries to supplying domestically produced mobile phones. In 2024, the global market share of domestic brands increased by 29.5% compared to 2023. Domestic mobile phones have significant advantages in performance and cost-effectiveness, and they can continue to explore emerging country markets in the future. However, China's high-end semiconductor technology still needs breakthroughs, and short-term supply chain stability may be impacted. Overall, as the intensity of this trade conflict far exceeds previous ones, the impact on the global economy is relatively significant. Future policies remain uncertain, and how long the reciprocal tariffs will last, and whether they may change through negotiations in the future, are all unknowns. This means that short-term global asset price volatility is unlikely to subside quickly. Although the tin supply side has strong support, the impact of tariff escalation on demand is also quite severe. In the short term, tin prices are unlikely to strengthen independently and will mainly follow the fluctuations of the non-ferrous metal sector. Although tin prices have pulled back significantly from their highs, tin prices are still relatively high compared to other metals, only retracing the post-Chinese New Year gains, which is also influenced by fundamental support. In the case of a prominent supply-demand imbalance, short-term futures prices are highly elastic, and significant volatility may continue.

[SMM Commentary: Optimistic Market Sentiment and Catch-Up Demand, Supply-Side Disruptions "Fuel" Post-Holiday SHFE Tin Rally] During the Chinese New Year holiday in the Year of the Snake, LME tin rose by 2.31%. After the holiday, SHFE tin, which was closed during the holiday, showed catch-up demand due to the increase in LME tin prices. The US dollar pulled back to around 107.7, and metals broadly rose. Driven by multiple factors, including optimistic market sentiment, increased positions by bulls pushing prices higher, the continued suspension of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, and potential impacts on tin ore supply in North Kivu Province, DRC, due to local conflicts, SHFE tin saw significant increases in the first two trading days after the holiday.