[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

SMM February 28: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with overseas daily average production rising 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed Alba’s production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire incident at year-end. The affected production line is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated primary aluminum shipments fell 14% QoQ in Q4 2025, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at its Iceland plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at Mt. Holly is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and approach full capacity by the end of July. South 32’s performance report maintained Mozal aluminum smelter’s FY2026 production guidance at 240,000 mt, with the plant expected to begin maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported the government is taking necessary measures to maintain Mozal’s operations. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but production cuts or shutdown risks at the Mozambique plant may cause daily average aluminum production to turn negative. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration, with the Iceland plant’s restart expected ahead of schedule and other plants slightly increasing operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, though global aluminum inventory trends warrant ongoing attention.

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production totaled in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with the overseas daily average production up 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed that Alba's production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire accident at year-end 2025. The production line affected by the fire is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated that primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 fell 14% QoQ, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at the Iceland aluminum plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at the Mt. Holly plant is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than originally planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and recover to near full capacity by the end of July. South 32's performance report showed that the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique maintained its FY2026 guidance production of 240,000 mt, meaning the Mozal plant is expected to transition into maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported that the government is taking necessary measures to keep the Mozal plant operating. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but the Mozal plant faces risks of output reduction or shutdown. Affected by this, daily average aluminum production may turn to negative growth. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration; the Iceland plant's production resumption is expected earlier than planned; other plants also slightly increased operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, and global aluminum inventory trends need ongoing attention. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

Australian mining company Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its Q4 2024 operational report. FMG's iron ore production in Q4 reached 61.9 million mt, up 8% QoQ and up 12% YoY.

Australian mining company Fortescue (FMG) released its operational report for Q1 2025 (Q3 of the 2025 Australian fiscal year), which showed the following: Production: In Q1, FMG's iron ore production reached 55.5 million mt, down 10% QoQ and up 19% YoY. The total iron ore processing volume was 47.6 million mt, down 7% QoQ and up 12% YoY. Shipments: In Q1, FMG's iron ore shipments reached 46.1 million mt, down 7% QoQ and up 6% YoY. Financials: In Q1, FMG's C1 cash cost was $17.53/wmt (based on Pilbara hematite), down 4% QoQ and down 7% YoY. Additionally, the shipment guidance for the 2025 fiscal year is 190-200 million mt, with a C1 cost target of $18.5-19.75/wmt (based on Pilbara hematite).

Australian mining company Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its Q4 2024 operational report. Iron ore production in Q4 reached 61.90 million mt, up 8% QoQ and up 12% YoY. FMG's iron ore shipments in Q4 totaled 49.40 million mt, up 4% QoQ and up 1% YoY.