Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's WeChat update, on February 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened a plenary meeting of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry. The meeting focused on thoroughly studying and implementing the important instructions and directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping, and discussed and arranged key tasks to promote the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry, and Head of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Xin Guobin, Member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister, and Xie Shaofeng, Chief Engineer, attended the meeting. The meeting noted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's low-altitude industry has achieved positive results, with accelerated breakthroughs in technology and equipment, and diversified expansion in application scenarios. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is essential to earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, fully recognize the new situation facing the development of China's low-altitude industry, balance development and security, adhere to both policy support and reform innovation, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the leading role of enterprises in innovation, accelerate the cultivation of industrial clusters, and build an intelligent, green, and integrated industrial system, to steadily advance the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. The meeting emphasized the need to effectively strengthen top-level planning, carry out planning formulation work well, increase policy support for the innovative development of the low-altitude industry, accelerate preliminary research on standards, and establish a sound industrial standard system. Efforts should be made to firmly build a security foundation, strengthen management in the manufacturing sector, attach great importance to low-altitude radio security, cybersecurity, and data security, and establish a test and verification systems for low-altitude equipment. It is necessary to actively promote integrated innovation, strengthen research on fundamental and common technologies in the industry, deepen the synergy between low-altitude equipment and industries such as new energy and new-generation information technology, and accelerate the empowerment of artificial intelligence. A favorable environment should be vigorously fostered, with orderly expansion of application scenarios, strengthening scenario-driven upgrades of equipment, deepening high-level international cooperation, and consolidating the talent foundation for the industry, to provide strong support for the development of the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry. Heads of relevant departments, subordinate units, and affiliated universities of the Ministry attended the meeting and delivered exchange speeches.

The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

[Non-Farm Payrolls Data Exceed Expectations, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Pull Back] At the beginning of the week, the gradual digestion of macro sentiment led to a decline in LME zinc; however, continued destocking of overseas LME zinc inventory provided bottom support for prices. Subsequently, as the market continued to await the delayed release of non-farm payrolls and CPI data, trading activity became more cautious, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

[SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1] This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, although strong non-farm payrolls prompted the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate cuts, US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, geopolitical risks persisted, and LME social inventory continued to draw down, providing price support. LME zinc consistently fluctuated at highs.

Next week, the Chinese market will enter the Chinese New Year holiday, and the SHFE will be closed. Overseas markets such as South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia will also have varying degrees of holidays, with exchanges closed, while European and US markets will operate normally. Key economic data to be released include the US December core PCE price index year-on-year, among others. Meanwhile, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. For LME lead, overseas market news was mediocre. After a significant increase of 30,000 mt in LME lead inventory the previous week, inventory changes this week were relatively small, and the LME Cash-3M maintained a large discount of -$47.05/mt. During the Chinese New Year period, overseas European and US markets will trade normally. We need to pay attention to the impact of US Fed officials' speeches on the US dollar index. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,920/mt and $2,040/mt during and after the holiday. For SHFE lead, next week is the Chinese New Year holiday, and SHFE lead will be closed until trading resumes on February 24. Domestically, social inventory had already risen to a nearly five-month high in the week before the holiday. Due to varying holiday schedules among upstream and downstream enterprises during the holiday, lead consumption will be absent, and lead ingot inventory buildup is expected after the holiday. Additionally, we need to monitor the progress of downstream enterprises resuming production after the holiday and the period when lead ingot inventory shifts to destocking. After the holiday, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 16,350 yuan/mt and 16,900 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 16,350–16,700 yuan/mt. After the holiday, downstream lead enterprises will gradually resume production from the first to the second week post-holiday. Considering that downstream enterprises generally maintain some lead ingot inventory, procurement expectations in the first week after the holiday are limited. On the supply side, most secondary lead enterprises plan to resume production in the second week after the holiday, leading to limited market supply in the first week. Primary lead smelters, however, will operate relatively normally and are likely to be the main contributors to lead ingot inventory buildup during the holiday. After the holiday, primary lead transactions are expected to face risks of expanding discounts.