SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,576.5/mt, dipping to $13,554.5/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $13,747/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $13,746.5/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 276,000 lots, an increase of 5,289 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,450 yuan/mt, fluctuating downward early in the session to a low of 104,100 yuan/mt. The price center then surged upward, reaching 105,290 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 105,270 yuan/mt, up 1.17%. Trading volume reached 41,000 lots, and open interest reached 177,000 lots, a decrease of 310 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

SMM May 28 update: The minor metal sector strengthened on May 28. As of the close on May 28, the minor metal sector rose 3.44%. In terms of individual stocks: Sino-Platinum Metals, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and China Molybdenum hit the daily limit, while China Minmetals Rare Earth, China Tungsten And Hightech, China Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth led the gains. On the news front: According to authoritative local media in Zimbabwe and Xinhua News Agency, the Zimbabwean government recently issued the Mineral Classification and Declaration, explicitly listing lithium and other high-value minerals as "critical minerals" subject to equity and export controls. The critical minerals involved include 14 types: lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chromium, platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium. The market is focused on the impact of tightening resource-country policies on global supply chains, with sentiment warming for minor metal varieties such as antimony and tungsten. Spot market Tungsten According to SMM pricing, on May 28, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 415,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 1.22% from the previous trading day. Notably, after wolframite concentrates previously experienced a 61.88% decline over more than two months, driven by increased purchasing demand in the tungsten market, tungsten prices saw a rebound over two trading days. Currently, transactions in the tungsten concentrates market have improved, suppliers are bullish and hold back from selling, high-grade ore sees an upward shift in transaction center, while medium and low-grade ore circulates more but price increases appear lackluster. Downstream APT industry operating rates have slightly improved, but with limited new orders in the industry, smelters are cautious in restocking, with only small volumes of spot orders and large orders transacted in the market. Regarding the tungsten outlook, in the short term, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream rigid demand, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market has overall entered a consolidation-at-lows and recovery phase. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM surveys, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand, but influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional September-October peak season, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Rare Earths After the rally on May 27, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 28 fell 1.79% from the previous trading day, and inquiries in the rare earth oxide market were sluggish on the 28th. Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated frequently this week. Upstream and downstream players continued their stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment and showed low purchase willingness at high prices. Absent other news-driven factors, Pr-Nd oxide is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term before any significant change in the supply-demand relationship. Institutional Views Huafu Securities noted in its research report dated May 24, when commenting on other minor metals: rare earths performed weakly, while tantalum pentoxide surged during the week. In the rare earth market, end-use demand from downstream magnetic material sectors remained weak, with no large-scale concentrated restocking observed — only sporadic rigid-demand small orders were transacted, and the demand side consistently failed to provide effective support for the market. Market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with frequent tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Overall industry confidence was insufficient, with a notable stalemate between upstream and downstream on offer and bid prices, and significant divergence within the industry regarding the outlook for subsequent market trends. On Friday, the market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting changes in the magnetic material restocking pace and a recovery in downstream demand. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, China Moly, China Gold, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Kaiyuan Securities' mid-year 2026 investment strategy for the metals sector indicated: Copper: Supply side, most ex-China miners continued to face declining ore grades and recovery rates, with disruption factors persisting (Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine). Although China's domestic enterprises added incremental capacity, the overall increase was limited. Under optimistic assumptions, global supply growth from 2026 to 2027 may fall below 2%. Demand side, power demand in both China and the U.S. maintained high growth rates in H1, which is expected to contribute marginal incremental copper demand. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the supply-demand structural imbalance for copper will become more pronounced in 2026, supporting a rise in the copper price center. Lithium: Supply side, capital expenditure in the lithium industry contracted and supply discipline gradually took shape. Combined with frequent disruptions, supply elasticity in the lithium industry has declined notably compared to before. Meanwhile, energy storage demand sustained high prosperity, driving gradual improvement in the lithium demand structure and marginal easing of inventory pressure. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Lithium enterprises with resource security, low-cost advantages, and integrated layouts are expected to see earnings recovery elasticity outperforming the industry average. Lithium mine and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency rates and strong cost control capabilities are worth watching. Tungsten: As a strategic metal where China holds a dominant position, tungsten ore supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection, and other factors. Combined with the government's total volume control on tungsten ore mining, tungsten ore production release remains limited. Demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to provide long-term support for tungsten prices. According to a CITIC Securities research report, the current metals sector valuation remains at a reasonable level, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and a valuation rebound is still anticipated. Sector dividends have pulled back slightly, but the projected dividend yields of some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity shocks are expected to ease, supply disruptions are expected to occur frequently, and certain downstream sectors are expected to sustain relatively high prosperity. It is recommended to maintain a focus on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

According to an SMM survey, due to unsatisfactory downstream orders and compressed profit margins, silver powder producers showed low purchase willingness. Against this backdrop, the "silver-based premiums" quotations for silver powder saw discounts widen to -30 to -20 yuan/kg, with the discount range exceeding the mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots on the same day.

Capacity: According to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW. This week, there were no offline public delivery data available. Project updates: Shenzhen Energy Northern (Etuoke Banner) Energy Co., Ltd. : The sub-project of the Shenzhen Energy Etuoke Banner 505 MW wind and solar power integrated hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project—the 5 MW off-grid PV power-to-hydrogen project—completed full-process commissioning and successfully produced green hydrogen, with daily output of about 6,000 m³ of high-purity hydrogen. The project relies on direct power supply from PV arrays, operates independently from the main power grid, and achieves stable hydrogen production without large-scale energy storage through intelligent regulation and control. The new model simplifies the system and reduces investment, fully eliminating reliance on the public power grid and ensuring clean, self-supplied electricity throughout the hydrogen production process. Shaanxi Hydrogen Luyuan New Energy Co., Ltd. : The air-compression nitrogen generator for the hydrogen energy demonstration project at the Shaanxi Hydrogen Luyuan Yulin Zero-Carbon Industrial Park completed single-unit trial operation, moving the project from the equipment installation stage into the commissioning and production stage. The air-compression nitrogen generation unit is the core equipment of the project’s utilities. During the trial run, operations and maintenance personnel conducted hands-on learning throughout and completed technical handover in parallel, strengthening operational capabilities. The successful trial run also accumulated experience for subsequent equipment commissioning. Next, the enterprise will orderly advance all commissioning work, strictly control safety and quality, and make every effort to bring the project into operation as soon as possible. Haiyan Zhongda Metal Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. : Haiyan Zhongda Metal Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. issued an announcement stating that the methanol-to-hydrogen 100 Nm³/h + 200 Nm³/h project was officially terminated. The project’s first tender was launched on March 23, and the tender results were announced on April 13. A total of three bidders submitted bids. One bid was rejected, and although the remaining two passed the preliminary review, the bid evaluation was immediately suspended due to a lack of competitiveness. The project was re-tendered on April 21 to procure two sets of methanol-to-hydrogen equipment of different specifications, requiring hydrogen purity ≥99.999% and supply pressure ≤0.8 MPa. It was a turnkey project, with delivery to be completed within three months after the contract took effect. The project under this second tender was ultimately terminated. Hami Hydrogen Storage Xingjian New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Xinjiang released two EPC general contracting tender notices related to hydrogen energy storage, to be implemented in Hami and Tacheng, respectively. Among them, the Xinjiang Hami 100 MW/800 MWh hydrogen energy storage peak-shaving power station EPC general contracting project was initiated by Hami Hydrogen Storage Xingjian New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., located in Hami City, with a total land area of about 20 mu. The project includes supporting construction of a 220 kV step-up substation and a 5 km power transmission line. The hydrogen fuel cell has a rated output of 100 MW, with short-term overload capability reaching 110%; the main transformer capacity is 1×150 MVA; the 220 kV side has one outgoing line; and the 35 kV side is expected to have four incoming lines in this phase, with two expansion bays reserved. On the same day, the tender was also officially launched for the EPC general contracting project of the 220 kV step-up substation for the Xinjiang Tacheng Toli County 200 MW/1,600 MWh grid-forming hydrogen energy storage peak-shaving power station. Datang Jingtai Wind Power Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: The shortlisted candidates for the bid for technical services for compiling the feasibility study report of the Datang Gansu wind and solar power coupled off-grid hydrogen production demonstration project were officially announced. The project is located in Baiyin District, Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The first shortlisted candidate was PowerChina Group Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited, with a bid price of 1 million yuan; the second shortlisted candidate was China Power Engineering Consulting Group North China Power Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 1.12 million yuan. The project is expected to build a new 21 MW wind and solar power coupled hydrogen production power station, including 14 MW wind power and 7 MW PV, with a supporting 5 MW/5 MWh grid-forming ESS; and to build a 12 MW hydrogen production station simultaneously, selecting four types of electrolyzer units—ALK, AEM, PEM, and SOEC—with hydrogen output required to meet the national standard for ultra-high-purity hydrogen. The project will also include supporting facilities such as hydrogen storage and transportation, a desalinated water station, and a power distribution room. Shanxi International Energy Group Energy Storage Co., Ltd.: Procurement was launched for services to compile the feasibility study report for the Arong Banner green electricity direct-connection hydrogen production and sustainable aviation fuel project. The project is located in Arong Banner, Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 11.095 billion yuan. It will build 1 GW of wind power, with supporting construction of 150 MW/600 MWh all-vanadium flow energy storage, 150 MW hydrogen fuel cells, and a hydrogen storage and transportation base with 70 mt of hydrogen storage capacity, producing 47,000 mt of green hydrogen and 350,000 mt of green aviation kerosene annually. The project will be implemented through two sub-projects: off-grid wind power hydrogen production, and grid-connected green hydrogen coupled with biomass for sustainable aviation fuel. The feasibility study report must be prepared in separate volumes by sub-project and include a consolidated volume with key information; meanwhile, a survey of biomass resources within 300 km around the Arong Banner chemical industrial park must be completed. The project allows suppliers to apply in the form of a consortium. Policy review​ 1. MIIT published on its official website the preliminary list of the second batch of key pilot-scale testing platforms to be cultivated, with the public comment period from May 18 to May 22, 2026. The list covered 32 fields, with 111 pilot-scale testing platforms selected. In the hydrogen energy field, there were three pilot-scale testing platforms, including those for hydrogen vehicles, liquid hydrogen, and comprehensive verification of hydrogen energy products, including: the full-chain verification pilot-scale testing platform for hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles, hosted by the Beijing Institute of Product Quality Supervision and Inspection; the liquid hydrogen equipment detection pilot-scale testing platform, hosted by the Beijing Aerospace Test Technology Research Institute; and the comprehensive verification pilot-scale testing platform for hydrogen energy products, hosted by China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. 2. The Hubei Provincial Department of Transportation issued the “Notice on Implementing a Toll Subsidy Policy for Hydrogen Energy Vehicles Using Expressways in Hubei Province.” The notice stated that eligible hydrogen energy vehicles (with hydrogen fuel cells as the sole power source) that legally transport loads, are equipped with and normally use ETC, and travel on expressways within Hubei Province (with entry/exit records and inter-station travel routes all within Hubei Province) will be exempt from expressway tolls. Implementation period: from the date of issuance of this notice to December 31, 2027. 3. The Guangdong Provincial Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement soliciting opinions on the Guangdong local standard “Operational Specification for Integrated Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Refueling Devices (Draft for Review).” The document stated that it specifies the basic requirements for operation of integrated hydrogen production, storage, and refueling devices, personnel management, equipment and facility management, hydrogen quality management, hydrogen refueling operation management, safety management, archive management, and data records, among others. Enterprise updates​​ Zhejiang Tianneng Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: The launch event for the “Chenxing” series of new large power fuel cell products was grandly held in Changxing, Zhejiang, officially releasing four products: T-280, N-345, T-200, and N-245. The stack volumetric power density exceeded 4.2 kW/L, and the system gravimetric power density reached 947 W/kg, achieving smaller size, lighter weight, and stronger power output. Zhejiang Lingniu Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Zhejiang Province with Zhizi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Tianneng Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. In the future, the three parties will leverage their respective strengths in fuel cell systems, vehicle manufacturing, and hydrogen energy operations to jointly advance the construction of the Yangtze River Delta hydrogen transportation corridor and accelerate the connectivity of the region’s hydrogen logistics arteries. Shaanxi Xingran Technology Co., Ltd.: Formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shidai Hydrogen Source, a core hydrogen energy enterprise in South China. Both parties announced that they will jointly build a leading cooperative alliance in the hydrogen production equipment field, promoting PEM hydrogen production technology toward full-scale and commercial deployment. Tibet Zangjia Automobile Service Co., Ltd. : Thirty methanol electric heavy-duty trucks were delivered and put into operation, and the Tibet Autonomous Region’s first new energy logistics enterprise settled in Sangri County. The project’s total investment was 120 million yuan, helping the local area advance its “dual carbon” efforts and laying an important foundation for building a plateau green logistics system. Zhejiang Geely Farizon New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: Fifty Farizon Xinghan G methanol electric tractor units were officially delivered to a client in Tibet, and 150 heavy-duty trucks of the same series were signed on-site. The vehicles will serve material transportation for the Sichuan–Tibet Railway and the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, leveraging zero-carbon technologies to adapt to complex plateau road conditions and create a green transportation demonstration route on the snowy plateau. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Signed memoranda of cooperation on hydrogen ecosystem development with nine enterprises including Hyundai Motor, Hong Kong and China Gas, and Veolia. The parties will promote “turning waste into hydrogen,” converting gas from Hong Kong landfills into clean energy, and deploy pilot hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen fuel cell fleets. The goal is to establish a complete local hydrogen energy industry chain by the end of 2030. Guofu Hydrogen Energy Chairman Wu Pinfang attended the signing. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Together with Thailand’s CP Energy and Water Asia and UPowerLimited, completed the signing in Hong Kong for cooperation on Thailand IDC integrated energy solution projects. Previously, Guofu Hydrogen Energy and UPower had jointly established HydroDataLimited, and Xie Zhan was appointed chairman of the company at the signing ceremony. CP Energy and Water Asia has deep roots in Southeast Asian data center and industrial park projects, and the three parties will jointly advance the local implementation of integrated energy-related businesses. Patent applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifetime of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology footprint/technical specifications​​ 1. The National Hydrogen Power Quality Inspection and Detection Center of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute built a 0–400 kW hydrogen-related loaded tri-comprehensive vibration test platform and opened it for commercial use, filling China’s gap in large power hydrogen-related multi-physics coupling testing. 2. The high specific power cathode closed air-cooled stack technology developed by Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng’s team at the National Key Laboratory of Energy Catalytic Conversion of the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. The technology effectively addressed the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, and solved technical challenges such as performance degradation under low humidity, carbon corrosion, dry membrane flooding, and high-power thermal management. 3. Two group standards on hydrogen production via water electrolysis were officially released and implemented: “Safety Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production via Water Electrolysis” and “Calculation Method for Economic Operation Indicators of Hydrogen Production via Water Electrolysis.” 4. Petronor and H2SITE cooperated to promote membrane-based hydrogen production technology, improving high-purity hydrogen supply and low-carbon efficiency in refining. 5. Dalian University of Technology designed an electron-pump catalyst with an asymmetric photoresponse structure to maintain asymmetry in electron distribution.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,653/mt, swung wildly in early trading to probe a high of $13,666/mt. The copper price center then fluctuated downward to touch a low of $13,512.5/mt, before swinging wildly again near the end of the session to finally close at $13,516/mt, down 0.69%, with trading volume at 23,700 lots and open interest at 270,300 lots, an increase of 1,898 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,470 yuan/mt, swung wildly in early trading to touch a high of 104,670 yuan/mt. The copper price center then dropped sharply to probe a low of 103,800 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 104,010 yuan/mt, down 0.9%, with trading volume at 43,400 lots and open interest at 180,500 lots, a decrease of 942 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

The average price of wolframite concentrates on May 26 was 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), showing signs of stabilization after a nearly 62% decline over more than two months. Currently, downstream procurement demand in the tungsten market increased. Transactions across the entire tungsten industry chain — from tungsten concentrates, APT, and powder to tungsten scrap — recovered. Low-priced supplies in the market gradually diminished, and the industry as a whole showed signs of stopping falling and stabilizing. Wolframite Concentrates Fell 61.88% over 2+ Months, Prices Stabilized on the 26th The downward pace of tungsten concentrate prices slowed, with in-market transactions dominated by medium- and low-grade ore, while high-grade ore transactions remained relatively sluggish. As industry inventory continued to be cleared, downstream restocking demand picked up, mine auction transactions proceeded smoothly, and transaction prices were slightly higher than spot prices for scattered spot cargo in the market, effectively boosting market sentiment. On the 25th, a tungsten enterprise in Guangdong announced that its long-term contract prices for 55% wolframite concentrates for the second half of May were higher than spot order prices in the market, providing strong support for the market bottom and further consolidating the industry's trend of stopping falling. The specific long-term contract prices were: 55% wolframite concentrates at 414,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), 55% scheelite concentrates at 413,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), and APT long-term contract prices at 660,000 yuan/mt. After tungsten prices hit a record high on March 16, they were on an overall pullback trend due to weak demand, and tungsten prices underwent a deep correction over more than two months. According to SMM quotes, on May 26, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 400,000–401,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), unchanged from the previous trading day. Compared with the record high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 650,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over two months, a staggering decline of 61.88%! Since May, maintenance and production cuts by China's APT enterprises, along with measures to cut production to hold prices firm, effectively digested earlier inventory. As raw material prices gradually stabilized, smelters' willingness to hold prices firm strengthened, downstream just-in-time procurement gradually followed, and market trading activity rebounded slightly. Combined with the support formed by major producers' long-term contract pricing being finalized, APT prices stopped falling, and the market gradually entered a consolidation-at-lows phase. The tungsten powder market continued to see catch-up declines, though the pace of decline slowed down. Recently, the tungsten scrap market stopped falling and stabilized, recycled tungsten enterprises showed insufficient willingness to sell at low prices, and tungsten scrap transactions improved somewhat. Outlook Regarding the outlook for tungsten, overall, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream just-in-time procurement, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market as a whole entered a bottoming-out and recovery phase. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to an SMM survey, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen their inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand. However, influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional "September-October peak season" consumption boom, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Recommended reading: