SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a low of $13,190/mt, and finally closed at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume was 26,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, up 306 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,180 yuan/mt, edged up to 102,600 yuan/mt, then drifted lower to touch a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume was 55,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 2,799 lots from the previous session, indicating that bears reduced positions. On the macro front, US PCE data largely met expectations, and the US dollar index halted its three-day rally. Geopolitically, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that unauthorized transits are "unacceptable," and Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which heightened Middle East tensions again and pushed geopolitical risk premiums higher. These factors eased rate hike concerns, and the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, helping copper prices stabilize and rebound.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,489/mt, initially rising to $13,533.5/mt before the price center gradually shifted lower to $13,386/mt, ultimately closing at $13,427/mt, down 1.2%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 277,000 lots, a decrease of 6,463 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,130 yuan/mt, initially touching a high of 104,170 yuan/mt before the price center shifted lower to a low of 103,390 yuan/mt, ultimately moving sideways to close at 103,670 yuan/mt, down 0.82%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 143,000 lots, a decrease of 4,124 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.