[SMM Aluminum News Flash] Recently, SHFE aluminum prices have accelerated their decline, and casting aluminum alloy futures have also weakened. However, supported by factors such as tight aluminum scrap supply, tax invoice constraints and high costs, casting aluminum alloy prices have shown strong resilience, clearly outperforming primary aluminum in downside resistance. As a result, the price spread between the AL and AD futures has continued to narrow, hitting a new low since the contracts were listed. In the spot market, the positive price spread of ADC12 over A00 aluminum has widened in tandem.

During yesterday's night session and today's morning session, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged. In the Central China market, downstream processing enterprises' buying sentiment recovered somewhat, and their stockpiling willingness increased. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets were inclined to quickly capture price spreads, with significant sentiment of holding prices firm and holding back from selling, driving market quotations to stay high. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the Central China market was around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight correction. Shipment sentiment in the central China market improved further today compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at lower premiums, while suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm. Market quotes declined continuously, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before market open to a discount of around 120-140 yuan/mt against the same contract, with the mainstream transaction range being at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

[Inventory Buildup Weighs on Domestic Aluminum Prices; Ex-China Support and Risks Coexist] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum production outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing restrictions have constrained aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[Geopolitical Negotiations Remain Unresolved; Aluminum Prices Continue LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern] Overall, the Middle East negotiation process continued to face setbacks. However, the supply gap outside China and the continued drawdown of LME inventory supported LME prices to hold up well. Meanwhile, China's aluminum ingot inventory remained at elevated levels, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of domestic inventory can materialize smoothly.

SMM April 20 update: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated downward in early trading, but overall aluminum prices remained at high levels. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment was relatively positive, influenced by declining aluminum prices and wider premiums. Mainstream transactions in the market were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 3.4 today, down 0.32 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.06, flat MoM. SHFE aluminum prices pulled back today, but high aluminum prices still suppressed buying sentiment in the central China market. Downstream processing enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with slight pressure to push for lower prices in actual transactions. However, overall buying sentiment recovered compared to the previous two days. Suppliers had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, transaction prices remained stable, and the downward trend was not significant. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between a 20 yuan premium over the central China price and parity. The shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.85 today, flat MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.39, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 28,000 mt MoM today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup.