In the spot market this week (Jul. 6-10, 2026), the SMM #1 lead price first fell then rose, with the weekly average price up 50 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, lead prices consolidated on a subdued note. Lead smelters had high inventory and mostly sold shipments following the market. EXW primary lead cargoes were quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, and downstream enterprises gradually purchased as needed for restocking, with moderate spot trading activity. In the second half of the week, lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was curbed, and market wait-and-see sentiment heightened. Lead smelters expanded discounts for shipments, with Hunan quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price at a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary refined lead, smelters had considerable production suspensions and cuts, with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices. Secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt. In the second half of the week, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead smelters sold less at premiums, and transactions at a 50 yuan/mt discount emerged, with market trading also weakening.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,882.5/mt, drifted lower to a low of $1,875/mt during Asian trading hours before rebounding. Entering European trading hours, bulls pushed LME lead higher, reaching a high of $1,904.5/mt at the close, finally settling at $1,887.5/mt, up 0.35%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,940 yuan/mt, lightly touching a low of 15,930 yuan/mt at the start of trading. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, SHFE lead rose to 16,110 yuan/mt. Due to poor fundamentals, it gave back some gains at the close, finally settling at 16,030 yuan/mt, up 0.79%. Macro Front: The US trade deficit widened to its largest in over a year in May, with imports broadly increasing and exports declining. The PBOC increased gold holdings for the 20th consecutive month. The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct spot checks on fair competition reviews. China's foreign exchange reserves in June stood at $3,416.262 billion. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will continue to increase the proportion of asset allocation in Hong Kong. The PBOC and two other departments welcomed the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) to co-build Hong Kong's electronic fixed income and currency trading platform. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a subdued note. Suppliers sold as the market moved, with transactions mostly at small discounts. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were generally traded at discounts, with quotations in mainstream production areas from a discount of 25 yuan/mt to a premium of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters had many production cuts and shutdowns, resulting in limited market supply. Secondary refined lead quotations remained near parity against the SMM #1 lead price. Downstream enterprises were not very active in purchasing, with some mainly relying on long-term contracts and others only making just-in-time procurement, so spot market trading activity was average. Inventory: On July 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 200 mt to 292,075 mt. As of July 6, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 70,200 mt, a decrease of 2,300 mt from July 2. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, the off-season trend persisted in July. After large enterprises resolved the factors of semi-annual inventory counting and account closing, they resumed regular procurement, bringing some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume after maintenance, shifting supply expectations to an increase, while secondary lead enterprises remained in a state of production cuts, with regional supply limitations. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

In the spot market this week (6.29-7.3), the SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for three consecutive days and cumulatively falling 325 yuan before staging a slight rebound on Friday to recover part of the losses. Amid month-end and mid-year book-closing and inventory checks, downstream battery producers held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, only purchasing small volumes for immediate needs, leaving overall spot order trading sluggish. By region, in Henan, smelters focused on deliveries under long-term contracts, and traders' discount range against the SHFE lead 2608 contract narrowed initially and then widened, with the full-week discount at 130-50 yuan and only sporadic transactions for low-priced cargoes; in Hunan, smelter spot order discounts gradually narrowed from 50-0 yuan to parity, with moderate transactions for low-priced cargoes; supplies in Jiangxi and Anhui remained tight throughout, with offers consistently at a premium of 100 yuan; Yunnan smelters cut prices to clear inventory, with discounts widening to 200-150 yuan during the week.

Spot market this week (6.22-6.26), SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for consecutive days initially before rebounding slightly on Friday. Coinciding with the dual periods of mid-year and month-end, downstream battery factories concentrated on inventory counting and account closing, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Just-in-time procurement was limited, and overall spot order trading remained weak. By region, Henan smelters mainly focused on long-term contract deliveries. Traders' quotes showed significant divergence, with spot orders against the SHFE lead 2607 contract at a discount range of 150-80 yuan/mt. At the weekend, the discount narrowed slightly to 130-100 yuan/mt, and only low-priced cargo saw sporadic transactions. Hunan smelters continued to widen discounts to move goods, with spot order discounts expanding from 30-0 yuan/mt to 80-50 yuan/mt. Small-brand lead discounts reached as high as 100 yuan/mt, and market transactions were limited. Jiangxi smelters had tight supply, and quotations maintained a premium structure throughout, with the premium raised from 80 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt and remaining stable.

In the spot market this week (6.15-6.18), SMM #1 lead prices first rose then fell, continuing to climb during the week before a slight correction ahead of the holiday. With mid-year settlement and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, downstream stocking willingness was sluggish, purchases at high prices were cautious, and spot order trading was sluggish. By region, smelters in Henan had low inventory and tight spot order supply, while traders’ supply was stably at discounts of 100-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2607 contract, with sluggish trading; smelters in Hunan quoted premiums of 0-20 yuan on the 15th, turned to discounts of 30-0 yuan on the 17th and 18th, with some cargoes negotiated to a discount of 50 yuan; smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui were unwilling to make significant concessions throughout, only slightly lowering their quotes, with premiums narrowing from 100-150 yuan to 80-100 yuan. Overall, downstream mostly relied on long-term contract purchases, and spot transactions were generally weak this week.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, fluctuating downward during Asian trading hours; entering European trading hours, it dipped to a low of $1,962/mt. Ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead shook off pressure and rallied, hitting a high of $1,983.5/mt at the tail end before finally settling at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, initially touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it then touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt at the tail end, with the KDJ gap widening, and finally settled at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. On the macro front: Trump: ready to let the Russian oil sanctions waiver expire and lapse. World Gold Council survey: more central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years; the central bank decided to suspend the reduction of bond purchases from April next year. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the safe and free passage of the Strait of Hormuz serves the interests of all parties. China Central Depository & Clearing Co.: plans to reduce the settlement service fee for cash bond trades executed by market makers through market-making from 20% off to 25% off. National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5%; from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.4%. NBS: in May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% MoM; second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4% MoM. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to hold up well, with suppliers' quotes remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, transactions for EXW cargoes from some smelters weakened. Mainstream electrolytic lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some even at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters showed divergent selling intentions. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with some mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts or receiving earlier-arriving cargoes. Spot market trading was sluggish. Inventory: on June 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,175 mt to 303,675 mt. As of June 15, social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: Transactions for primary lead EXW cargoes weakened. Secondary lead smelters experienced new maintenance, keeping supply-side uncertainties in place. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises stopped spot procurement as their lead ingot inventory was adequate for just-in-time production, supplemented by long-term contract cargo pick-ups. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, beware of the drag on lead prices from a weak supply-demand situation.