This week, the lithium carbonate market continued its upward trend, with the overall price center steadily rising. Price-wise, the spot market showed a sustained upward movement. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price rose steadily from 86,150 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 91,300 yuan/mt, while the industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price also climbed from 83,800 yuan/mt to 88,900 yuan/mt, resulting in a significant cumulative increase. The most-traded futures contract hit the daily limit up of 95,200 yuan/mt early in the week and continued to surge, briefly touching the 102,500 yuan/mt mark. Futures sentiment remained bullish, with continued capital inflows amplifying the gains.
Supply side, lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates overall, with spodumene and salt lake sources being the primary suppliers. Domestic lithium carbonate production in November is expected to maintain October's level, roughly flat MoM. Demand side showed strong momentum: the power battery sector benefited from rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEV markets, while the ESS market continued to experience robust supply and demand with persistently tight supply, collectively providing solid support for lithium carbonate consumption.
Market transactions were sluggish, as downstream material plants adopted a cautious stance towards the rapid price increases, primarily purchasing for rigid demand. Enterprises across the industry chain are currently negotiating long-term agreements for next year, with pricing coefficients being a key point of contention, which also added to the market's wait-and-see sentiment.
Looking ahead, production schedules for downstream battery cell and cathode material enterprises in November continued to improve, and lithium carbonate inventory is expected to see significant destocking. Supported by improving supply-demand fundamentals, expectations for continued destocking, and overall bullish market sentiment, lithium carbonate prices are likely to hold up well in the short term.
