SMM November 14 News:
Guangdong Region: WoW, spot premiums in the region bottomed out. At the beginning of the week, premiums declined due to a significant inventory increase. As inventory continued to drop and suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices approaching delivery, spot premiums fluctuated higher. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. Notably, high-quality copper quotes remained firm approaching delivery, widening the price spread with standard-quality copper. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums/discounts between Shanghai and Guangdong was 0 yuan/mt, leaving no room for inter-regional transfers. According to SMM statistics, total warehouse inventory in Guangdong as of Thursday was 19,000 mt, down 300 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 9,900 mt, up 1,903 mt WoW. Specifically: weekly warehouse arrivals this week were 12,000 mt/week, up 400 mt/week WoW, but below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Although there were concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the week, they were not sustained, and arrivals decreased significantly in the following days. Weekly warehouse withdrawals were 12,800 mt/week, up 700 mt/week WoW, below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Copper prices remained high, dampening downstream restocking enthusiasm, leading to a decrease in shipments.
Looking ahead to next week, in terms of supply, arrivals are expected to be low due to smelter maintenance and production cuts. However, consumption has not shown significant improvement under the pressure of high copper prices. Therefore, we believe next week will see weak supply and demand, with weekly inventory expected to decline slightly and spot premiums likely to edge higher.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
