On the morning session of September 12, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 273,550 yuan/mt. During the morning trading hours, prices fluctuated at highs, once approaching the 275,000 yuan/mt mark, continuing the recent pattern of holding up well. The LME tin contract closed at $34,700/mt on the previous trading day, up $65 or 0.19% from the prior session. The simultaneous strength in SHFE and LME tin prices primarily benefited from dual support: strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts on the macro front and tight supply fundamentals.
From a macro perspective, the latest US August CPI data rose to 2.9% YoY, with core CPI stable at 3.1%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims increased to 263,000, hitting a new high since October 2021, indicating a significant weakening in the job market that further reinforced market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. The continued weakness in the US dollar index made dollar-denominated base metals relatively cheaper, attracting global buyers and spilling risk appetite into the tin market. Expectations for lower interest rates reduced financing costs for enterprises, helping to stimulate demand for industrial metals and providing a favorable macro environment for tin prices.
Looking ahead, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term. With the traditional September-October peak season approaching, NEV and PV installation demand is entering a peak, and tin consumption is anticipated to grow QoQ in Q4. Supported by low inventory and tight supply, the downside for prices is limited. However, high prices also suppress actual consumption. The most-traded contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 270,000-275,000 yuan/mt in the near term.
