As of the midday session on July 30, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 267,500 yuan/mt, up 0.05% from the previous day. The intraday high reached 268,330 yuan/mt, with trading activity rebounding. LME tin contracts held steady, closing at $33,700/mt, up slightly by 0.24% from the previous day. The overseas inventory pressure has eased marginally.
Inventory divergence: Although LME inventories have seen a slight inventory buildup, the absolute volume remains at historically low levels, while domestic futures inventories have increased.
90-day extension of China-US tariffs: Both sides agreed to suspend the imposition of new tariffs. The IMF simultaneously raised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2025 to 4.8%, alleviating market concerns about the trade war.
US dollar and Fed policy disruptions: The US Fed's July interest rate-setting meeting leaned dovish, but internal divisions have intensified. The US dollar index jumped initially and then pulled back to 98.92. The metals sector is expected to see a short-term recovery window, but caution is advised against the volatility brought by fluctuating interest rate cut expectations.
SHFE tin is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term, but upside room is constrained by two factors: Myanmar's production resumption risks: If the production resumption progress of beneficiation plants in Myanmar exceeds expectations, it may alleviate ore supply tightness and suppress price elasticity. Expansion of spot discounts: Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, with just-in-time procurement dominating.
