Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 19, 2025
Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. After a slight lower open in the morning session, it fluctuated rangebound around 265,000 yuan/mt, closing at 264,760 yuan/mt at lunchtime, down slightly by 0.26% from the previous trading day. Open interest decreased slightly to 26,100 lots. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears continuing to grapple over the logic of "short-term tight balance versus easing in the long term."
Inhibited by high prices, the restocking willingness of traditional industries such as electronics and home appliances remained low. Solder companies' orders only sustained just-in-time procurement, and spot market transactions were sluggish.
Developments in Sino-US tariff negotiations and signals of policy adjustments by the US Fed (such as Powell's statement that "zero interest rates are not the baseline") have caused disturbances to market sentiment, exacerbating fluctuations in the US dollar index. However, macro drivers have weakened at the margin.
Spot Market Dynamics: Smelters have a strong willingness to hold prices, but the liquidity of high-priced resources is insufficient. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with only a few making just-in-time procurement. Traders are facing selling pressure, and overall market transactions are sluggish.
