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In March 2025, the foreign trade market for copper cathode exhibited characteristics of price competition amidst a supply-demand mismatch. Despite four consecutive weeks of inventory buildup in bonded areas, spot premiums did not come under pressure but instead strengthened due to persistent structural imbalances. The weekly average price of Yangshan copper premiums for B/Ls fluctuated upward from $68/mt at the beginning of the month to $96/mt by month-end. Premiums for B/Ls from South American arrivals surged as the LME-COMEX price spread widened to a historical peak, with premiums for CME-registered brand B/Ls exceeding $200/mt, reflecting the siphoning effect of cross-market arbitrage windows on resources amid disruptions caused by US tariff policies. The momentum for physical customs clearance on the domestic import side was insufficient, coupled with domestic smelters continuously transferring cargo to bonded areas through open export windows, creating a "bonded reservoir" effect. The core of the supply-demand mismatch lay in obstructions to long-term contract execution. Delays in April long-term contract declarations led to an inverted spread of nearly $50/mt between near-month B/L premiums and warrants, forcing the market to correct expectation gaps through rising premiums. Looking ahead, the tightening pattern of long-term supply remains unchanged—resources from Africa and South America continue to be redirected to the US, driving up offshore EQ copper premiums. It is expected that the premium center will remain high in Q2. The market has shifted from a simple price ratio logic to multi-dimensional pricing influenced by geopolitics and trade flow restructuring. The storage capacity of bonded inventories and cross-market arbitrage space will become key variables driving premium fluctuations.
Imports are expected to reach 250,000 mt in March
SMM forecasts that refined copper imports in March will decline by 13.43% MoM and 22.17% YoY. Imports of refined copper in March 2025 are expected to reach 250,000 mt, with cumulative imports from January to March expected to decrease by 15.76% YoY. According to SMM, the total imports of copper cathode in March 2025 are expected to continue decreasing MoM compared to February, with net imports expected to decline significantly. The main reasons are twofold: First, the LME-COMEX price spread hit a new historical high in March, further increasing the siphoning effect in North America, prompting large traders to move CME-registered B/Ls to the US. Second, logistical disruptions in Africa due to war have delayed shipment times. Looking ahead to April, SMM expects the total imports of copper cathode to increase by 20,000 mt MoM from March, while exports are expected to decrease by 15,000 mt MoM. Due to the market crash triggered by Trump's reciprocal tariff policy in April, risk aversion increased, leading to a collective decline in non-ferrous metals, including a sharp drop in LME copper. This significantly opened the import window, attracting canceled inventories from LME Asian warehouses to be continuously shipped to China. However, B/L arrivals from South America and Africa are expected to continue decreasing, resulting in an overall decline in imports compared to last year.
Exports are expected to reach 75,000 mt in April
The export window was wide open in March. According to SMM, in addition to fixed cargo sources under long-term contracts, the increase in domestic smelter exports in March was mainly for cargoes shipped to LME and Southeast Asian regions after locking in price ratios. Due to the shortage of copper in East Asia, overseas B/L premiums rose significantly, attracting domestic smelters to continuously increase exports. Therefore, SMM expects copper cathode exports in March to be around 75,000 mt. There is expected to be a remaining volume in April, with current export estimates at 60,000 mt.
