Futures Market:
Last Friday night, LME lead opened at $1,992.5/mt. During the Asian session, it traded sideways around the intraday moving average. Entering the European session, it fluctuated downward after peaking at $2,002.5/mt, hitting a low of $1,972/mt, and finally closed at $1,982/mt, down $9.5/mt or 0.48%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2503 contract opened at 17,130 yuan/mt. After dipping to 17,070 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, it rebounded and climbed to a high of 17,240 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it pulled back under pressure and traded sideways near the intraday moving average, eventually closing at 17,135 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt or 0.17%.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical prices
Macro: Last Friday, the US dollar fell by 0.24%, hitting an intraday low of 106.56, the lowest level in over two months since December 12, 2024, with a weekly decline of 1.2%. In precious metals, COMEX gold fell sharply last Friday due to profit-taking after the overnight opening, closing with a decline of 1.76%. However, it still recorded its seventh consecutive weekly gain, up 0.21%. Investors grew concerned about a potential global trade war following the US's push for reciprocal tariffs. Recently, US inflation data exceeded expectations, delaying market bets on the next US Fed interest rate cut to December, with only one 25-basis-point cut expected for the remainder of 2025. Attention should be focused on the release of the Fed's January monetary policy meeting minutes.
Quotations in the Shanghai market were scarce. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, JCC and Jijin lead were quoted at 17,135-17,215 yuan/mt, with spot discounts of 20-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. SHFE lead fluctuated upward, and suppliers were actively selling. However, some companies, due to low inventory levels, offered relatively firm prices. Mainstream smelters quoted cargoes self-picked up from production sites at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 150 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. For secondary lead, secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 120-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory. Downstream companies purchased as needed, with transactions favoring low-priced cargoes with large discounts. Spot market transactions improved day by day. Inventory: As of February 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,550 mt to 223,975 mt. As of February 13, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 52,200 mt, up 8,800 mt from February 6 and up 6,100 mt from February 10.
》Click to view the SMM metal industry chain database
Lead Price Forecast Today:
Ahead of the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract, spot premiums/discounts slightly declined, and suppliers increased warehouse transfers for delivery, leading to a temporary drag on lead prices due to the accumulation of visible lead ingot inventory. After the Lantern Festival, most downstream lead enterprises resumed production, and workers gradually returned to their posts. This week, downstream battery production is expected to see a marginal increase. However, it should be noted that this incremental consumption may not quickly offset the existing lead ingot inventory, and the risk of a temporary pullback in lead prices should still be monitored.
