Methodology Adjustment Note: The SMM Indonesia NPI 10‑12% Delivered to Chinese Ports price assessment continues to collect market transaction and inquiry information within the 10‑12% nickel‑content range. Nonetheless, this price assessment will primarily reflect the price level of 11%‑nickel‑content NPI, to deliver a more accurate representation of market prices.
In 2026, impacted by Indonesia’s RKAB quota controls, the market faced acute short‑term supply shortage of high‑grade nickel ore, and the grade of furnace‑fed nickel ore kept declining. Smelters struggled to stably produce high‑grade nickel pig iron. Disturbed by raw‑material grade divergence, price spreads between NPI of different nickel grades widened sharply, and price differentiation among high‑ and low‑grade cargoes intensified. Given the long‑term downtrend in nickel‑ore grade, volatile spreads across nickel grades are expected to persist.
To reflect market prices more truthfully and objectively, after market research and long‑term verification, SMM has rolled out methodology optimization for the calculation model of Indonesia NPI 10‑12% Delivered to Chinese Ports. A linear‑regression calculation for quoted prices of different nickel grades is newly added into the existing model workflow. Raw quotes collected within the 10‑12% nickel‑grade range will be converted uniformly to the 11% nickel‑grade benchmark via linear‑regression algorithms. The converted prices will then enter the quoting model for weighted calculation. Weighted Mean Absolute Deviation (WMAD) is further adopted to quantify the dispersion of all valid daily quotes against the weighted average price, so as to calculate the daily high‑low quote range and generate the final SMM Indonesia NPI 10‑12% Delivered to Chinese Ports assessment.
Explanation of Linear‑Regression Conversion Logic
Linear regression is applied to convert original transactions or quotes from their actual nickel grade to the benchmark 11% nickel grade. Formula: ：P₁=(P₀×Ni)+Q×(11−Ni)/11
- P₁：Converted price corresponding to the 11% nickel‑grade benchmark (CNY per nickel point)
- P₀：Standardized raw quote on the day (CNY per nickel point)
- Ni：Actual nickel grade of the respective quote
- Q：Daily market slope of nickel grade spread (CNY per nickel ton, derived by regression of all daily samples of varying nickel grades)
Formula interpretation: Based on the daily market slope of nickel‑grade price spread, quotes for non‑11% specifications are adjusted and converted to equivalent prices for the 11% nickel grade, eliminating price disturbances stemming from transactions executed at different nickel grades.
Explanation of Daily High‑Low Quote‑Range Calculation Logic
After nickel‑grade standardization and conversion, standardized intraday prices from enterprises are used to calculate the daily high quote level and daily low quote level.
- Daily Benchmark Index: SMM Indonesia NPI 10‑12% Delivered to Chinese Ports daily index obtained after standardization and nickel‑grade regression conversion (CNY per nickel point)
- Enterprise Daily Standardized Price: Price of each enterprise’s quote converted to the 11% nickel‑grade benchmark via linear regression (CNY per nickel point)
- Enterprise Final Daily Weight: Final weight assigned to each enterprise in the daily quote calculation
- Total Weight: Sum of weights of all sample enterprises participating in the calculation
- ∑: Summation over all valid sample enterprises
Formula interpretation: Centered on the daily benchmark index, weighted calculation is performed using the deviation magnitude of each enterprise’s standardized price relative to the benchmark index and respective enterprise weights, to derive the daily high quote level and daily low quote level. This output represents the reasonable intraday trading fluctuation range of the market.
Methodology Adjustment Note: The SMM Indonesia NPI 10‑12% Delivered to Chinese Ports price assessment continues to collect market transaction and inquiry information within the 10‑12% nickel‑content range. Nonetheless, this price assessment will primarily reflect the price level of 11%‑nickel‑content NPI, to deliver a more accurate representation of market prices.
This optimization shall take effect on September 7, 2026. SMM will keep tracking market developments and dynamically maintain the quoting methodology. Should you have any questions, please feel free to contact:
- Feng Disheng, Director of Big Data, Nickel Research Department, SMM: Tel: 021‑51666714; Email: fengdisheng@smm.cn
- Bruce Chew, Senior Analyst, Overseas Nickel & Stainless Steel, SMM: Tel: +601167087088; Email: bruce.chew@smm.cn
- Zhang Tongxu, Senior Analyst, NPI & FeNi, Nickel Research Department, SMM: Tel: 021‑20707929; Email: zhangtongxu@smm.cn
Thank you for your attention and support to SMM!
Nickel Research Team, SMM September 2, 2026