Latest Update in the SMM Phosphorus Market

Since April, the operating rate has declined by about 30 percentage points due to tight raw material supply, high costs, weak end-use consumption, and poor lead ingot sales. The low scrap volume of waste lead-acid batteries has led to scarce market supply and significant pressure on recyclers. Secondary lead smelters face tight scrap battery arrivals, low raw material inventories, and high purchase offers. Intense competition for raw materials and customer-specific price increases have further complicated the situation. Lead prices remained sideways during the week, with downstream battery producers showing a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Secondary lead smelters had low willingness to sell due to cost pressure, and the spot market for secondary refined lead was sluggish. As of May 16, the theoretical profit and loss value for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -592 yuan/mt, and -820 yuan/mt for small- and medium-sized enterprises.

[SMM: Industrial demand and ETF investment demand may support silver prices to fluctuate upward in the medium and long-term] SMM silver analyst Wang Huilin discussed the topic of "Evolution of Silver Supply and Demand and Price Outlook". According to SMM's estimates, with the construction of new silver recycling capacity, the estimated annual production of recycled silver in 2025 has exceeded 5,000 mt. Despite the current technological trends towards silver reduction and substitution, the silver paste consumption per GW of mainstream Topcon solar cells remains at 11-13 mt/GW. Therefore, the estimated silver consumption from domestic solar cell production in 2025 exceeds 6,000 mt. Industrial demand for silver is gradually increasing, with global industrial demand for silver accounting for approximately 62% of total demand in 2025.

April is traditionally a peak season, and the overall demand for galvanizing was relatively robust. Due to issues such as tariffs, there was a certain degree of early release of future demand, and the overall operation was good. How did the regions of North China, East China, and South China perform? Can the robust trend continue in May?

[Galvanising operating rates reached a nearly three-year high in April. How did different regions perform?] April, as a traditional peak season, saw robust overall demand for galvanising. Due to issues such as tariffs, there was an early release of future demand, resulting in relatively good overall operating rates. How did North China, east China, and South China perform respectively? Can the robust trend continue in May?