Latest Update in the SMM Aluminum Market

[Daily Review of ADC12 Prices: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap Strengthens Cost Support for Secondary Aluminum] On the spot market, today's SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 60 yuan/mt from Tuesday to 20,660 yuan/mt, while the SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 20,000 yuan/mt. Recently, both domestic and overseas aluminum scrap supplies have shown a tightening trend, directly leading to a significant increase in the difficulty of raw material procurement for secondary aluminum plants. The competition for "scrambling for materials" in the market has become increasingly fierce, while production costs continue to rise, and the scope of production losses for enterprises continues to expand.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Daily Total Inventory in Three Regions Declined Slightly, Spot Premiums Remained Stable] SMM reported on July 9: In the morning session, the center of SHFE aluminum prices rose slightly to around 20,650 yuan/mt. As the aluminum price center declined, downstream just-in-time procurement slightly rebounded. The daily inventory in east China declined slightly, with spot aluminum premiums mostly traded against the SMM average price, and premiums stabilized somewhat. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,660 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the July contract, unchanged from the previous trading day.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Strengthened Signals of Tariff Implementation, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs amid Low Inventory Support] On the macro front, Trump has clearly stated that tariffs will be imposed on 14 countries (including the EU) starting from August 1st, targeting key industries such as semiconductors and metals, significantly raising market risk-aversion sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said, "We will meet with the Chinese side in the coming weeks." Although no substantial positive news has been released, it has provided a buffer period for the escalation of trade frictions. On the fundamental front, the casting ingot output of some aluminum smelters in certain regions has increased. As July approaches, the downstream sectors are experiencing a strong off-season atmosphere. Coupled with the high aluminum prices further suppressing production performance, spot market transactions are far from ideal. Aluminum ingot inventory has continued to build up, with spot premiums/discounts weakening significantly. The real-time cost of electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline MoM. Overall, the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum billet has continued to build up. Coupled with weak demand during the off-season, sluggish orders, and export barriers, the upside potential for prices is suppressed. It is expected that the short-term aluminum prices will face increased pressure risks at highs, with upside potential remaining but relatively narrow. Subsequent attention should be paid to the casting ingot output and inventory changes.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap, High Costs Remain] Aluminum prices dropped back slightly on Tuesday, with SMM ADC12 prices holding steady at 20,000 yuan/mt. After July, factors such as the high-temperature off-season and high aluminum prices have continued to impact downstream orders, prompting some downstream enterprises to initiate production cuts. Although futures and spot traders have been actively inquiring about prices and trading volume of delivery brands has increased, the end-use consumer market remains sluggish, posing a key resistance to price increases.